Marbella | Costa Del Sol Market Report December 2025 + Outlook 2026

1. Introduction – The Story of 2025
   The Costa del Sol region, spanning from Málaga city through Marbella and along the New Golden Mile, enjoyed another year of robust demand and rising prices. After post-COVID normalization and the return of foreign visitors, buyers returned in force. By mid-2025 the average price in Málaga province was about €3,842/m², and Marbella hit record levels (~€5,258/m²). Low yields on safe assets and an ECB rate cut to 2% in June 2025 made mortgages more affordable again. Crucially, 2025 also brought new market transparency and regulations: the Notary Statistical Portal launched, and the government set up a Tourist Housing Observatory to track rental pressures. This year’s report will detail how these forces combined: broad price gains, strong foreign demand, tight supply, and evolving rules (e.g., tax and rental law changes). Readers will find a data-driven Costa del Sol property market update of 2025, comparing trends to 2024 and pointing toward 2026.
2. Annual Market Overview – Costa del Sol & Málaga Province
   In 2025 the Costa del Sol housing market saw steady growth rather than a collapse. Sales volumes in Málaga province grew modestly: through September 2025 there were about 27,676 home transactions (all types), roughly +7.7% versus the same period of 2024. New build sales jumped (~+23.7% YoY), while resales were nearly flat (+1.5%). Prices rose strongly. The provincial average unit price climbed into the high €3000s by mid-year. For context, national data show Spain’s house prices up ~10–12% in early 2025 (Andalusia +13.6%), so Costa del Sol’s increases were in line with top regions. In short, 2025 extended the post-pandemic boom. Demand remained broad-based and supply tight – Spain is still short by roughly 600,000 homes. A 2015–2025 price index chart would show a steady climb (no boom and bust swing), reflecting a generally healthy upwards trend in the Costa del Sol market.
3. Price Trends in Key Areas
   Prices climbed across the region in 2025, though some areas outpaced others. Marbella remained the priciest market. Average values in late 2025 were about €5,250–5,400/m², roughly 3–10% above early 2025 levels. Micro area data show the Golden Mile (Nagüeles) topping ~€6,422/m², a modest +4.6% rise YoY. Nueva Andalucía averaged ~€5,578/m² (+6.1%). Las Chapas/El Rosario and Elviria/Cabopino saw the strongest gains (mid-teens % growth). Málaga city also saw robust growth: its mid-year price (~€3,549/m²) was up ~15.6% YoY, boosted by urban renewal and tech sector demand. Estepona & New Golden Mile continued upward: Estepona’s average was ~€3,854/m² in April 2025 (about +7% since last year), supported by new mid-market and luxury projects. Benahavís & Sierra Blanca held ultra-luxury values. Benahavís averaged ~€5,391/m² in late 2025 (+16% YoY); Sierra Blanca (Marbella) and neighboring La Zagaleta remain at the top end. Other towns have heated up: Fuengirola is near €4,300/m² (+18.8%), and Ojén hit €3,863/m² (+25.6%). These smaller locales – and Mijas – are drawing more buyers due to their value and quality of life. By year-end, every segment saw higher prices than January 2025, led by luxury and up-and-coming submarkets.
4. Resale Market vs New Build Market
   The new build sector outperformed resales in 2025. In Málaga province, new construction sales surged (~+23.7% YoY Jan–Sept) while resales were almost flat (+1.5%). This split reflects the chronic shortage of existing homes – many buyers who can’t find a resale unit turn to off-plan projects. Price movements echo this shift: nationally, strong off-plan inflation spilled into resales. Recent data show resale prices rising faster (+12.8% YoY) than new build, as buyers lock in older homes. Both markets remain tight: resale inventory is scarce (good homes often sell at or above list), and most new developments are selling quickly, leaving little unsold stock. Discounts on off-plan units were uncommon; developers largely maintained prices, offering short-term incentives rather than deep cuts. In Marbella specifically, over 90% of mid 2024–2025 transactions were resales, underscoring the supply crunch in new supply. Overall, demand outstrips supply in both segments, with new builds growing faster in volume and resales catching up in price growth.
5. Foreign Buyer Activity
   Foreign buyers continued to dominate the Costa del Sol market. Properties drew buyers from over 28 countries. The top nationalities in 2025 were Dutch, Swedish, British, and German clients. Scandinavian interest remains strong in winter/spring, while British and Dutch clients spike in summer. Domestic Spanish buyers have started to reclaim some share, especially in mid-market segments, but foreigners still accounted for roughly two-thirds of purchases in Marbella and similarly high shares across Málaga. Financing is mostly cash: roughly 40–45% of Costa del Sol sales are all-cash deals, and in luxury transactions up to ~90% are cash. Only a minority of high-net-worth buyers use mortgages. Many buyers in 2025 are buying lifestyle homes, not just rentals. The majority are older buyers (45–59) treating purchases as long-term life moves. Vacation home buyers still represent a big segment, but many now plan to retire or work remotely in their new home. The nationality mix is expected to remain similar into 2026, with UK, Northern Europe, Benelux, and increasingly North America key contributors.
6. What Drove Demand in 2025
   Several factors fueled 2025 demand. Mortgage costs fell: after spiking in 2023, interest rates eased in mid-2025, which helped pull down Euribor and mortgage rates toward ~3% on new loans, reigniting hesitant borrowers. Tourism rebounded: Costa del Sol saw record visitors, and seasonal travel resumed fully in 2025. High tourist numbers brought a wave of part-time buyers scouting homes. Lifestyle appeal: remote work trends and safety/amenity factors continued to attract migrants. Spain’s climate and quality of life remain unmatched. International reports highlight Spain’s healthcare excellence and low crime rates, which resonate with retirees and families. Infrastructure: Málaga airport traffic exceeded 11.6M in H1 2025 and rolled out major new routes (e.g., Málaga–New York, Milan, Liverpool), improving connectivity. Road and rail projects also improved access. Cheaper credit plus the region’s enduring lifestyle draws meant demand stayed very strong all year.
7. Government Laws & Rule Changes Affecting Property
   7a. Notary Data Portal Launch – In October 2025 Spain launched the Portal Estadístico del Notariado, a public website where Notaries publish real transaction data by region and locality. For buyers and agents, this is a game changer: you can now look up actual recent sold prices to benchmark your offer. Sellers face more scrutiny: inflated asking prices can’t hide from the notary data. Overall, the portal greatly improves transparency, leveling the negotiation field in favor of informed buyers.

7b. Tourist Housing Observatory – In October 2025 the government approved creation of a Tourist Housing Observatory. Its mission is to compile an “atlas” of tourism-related housing data across Spain. The idea is to track how many housing units serve as short-term rentals and where. This is one of the first steps toward data-driven tourism policy. Investors and owners should note that future regulation (such as cap zones or license quotas) may be triggered by these findings.

7c. Taxes & Fees Updates – Transfer Tax and VAT: major tax shifts were under discussion. In mid-2025 the government proposed a “complementary tax” that would double ITP to 100% for non-EU buyers of resale homes. Importantly, it excludes new builds, which are subject to 10% VAT. Meanwhile, Andalusian authorities passed budget changes for 2026: a reduced 2% ITP rate on primary homes (≤€500k) purchased by professional investors, provided the property is resold within 2 years. Golden Visa: Spain abolished the Golden Visa program on April 3, 2025. Wealth Tax: non-resident owners got a break in late 2025: the Supreme Court ruled that non-residents can use the same 60% combined tax base cap as residents. Tourist Levies: more cities began considering overnight stay taxes, which may affect future investments.

7d. Mortgage Lending Rules – No major new mortgage laws were enacted in 2025, but lending conditions remained prudent. Banks generally still limit mortgages to ~70–80% LTV. Stress tests for loans remain strict. Interest rates eased with falling Euribor, so average 20- and 30-year rates ended 2025 around the high 2% range. This helped buyers get funded. Foreign borrowers still typically must demonstrate higher down payments, but credit is available if income and assets are solid.

8. Rental Market – What Happened in 2025
   The rental sector had a blockbuster year. Holiday rentals boomed on record tourism. Average weekly rates across the coast climbed to about €1,270, fueled by 13.8M annual visitors. Peak season occupancies reached ~85–95%. Yields in prime holiday areas (Marbella, Málaga center, Estepona) remain around 4–7% (even 8–9% for beachfront or deluxe homes). However, the new licensing crackdown notably cut supply: over 3,000 private vacation homes in Málaga province were deregistered in 2024 under tougher rules, and Málaga city imposed a moratorium on new short-let licenses in saturated districts. Long-term rentals also tightened. Many landlords shifted from long-term to more profitable short-term lets, shrinking long-term stock ~15% YoY. As a result, average monthly rents rose modestly. Typical yields for furnished long lets are still in the 4–6% range. Coastal apartments now fetch 25–40% higher rent than similar inland ones. In summary, renters paid more everywhere in 2025: holiday rentals saw double-digit price gains and very high occupancy, and long lets increased in price due to shrinking supply.
9. Area Specific Highlights

• Marbella: Luxury remains the story. Average prices are up +3–10% in 2025. High-end microzones lead: Golden Mile stays most expensive (~€6,422/m²) with small gains, while Nueva Andalucía and El Rosario saw solid mid-single-digit increases. Demand was strongest for renovated villas with sea views and tourist licenses; dated fixer-uppers sold slower. New developments in East Marbella (e.g., Elviria) drove the ~€4,375/m² market up ~+22%.
• Estepona: A value story. Mid-2025 prices (~€3,800–3,900/m²) are well above Málaga’s average. Estepona’s relative affordability and lifestyle (golf, port, schools) drew buyers. Modern apartments and semi-detached homes in New Golden Mile projects sold briskly, often to Dutch and British buyers.
• Málaga City Center: Urban regeneration lifted values. Neighborhoods like Soho, La Malagueta, and the new campus districts saw rising rents and sale prices. The city-wide average (~€3,500/m²) climbed ~15% in 2025. Condos near the new Málaga TechPark have been especially in demand.
• Benahavís & Sierra Blanca: Elite enclaves held firm. Benahavís’s average jumped to ~€5,391/m² (+16% YoY). Sierra Blanca and La Zagaleta continue to set the ultra-luxury benchmark. A few very large villas (15–20M+) sold this year, but most high-end sellers held out for the right price.
• Mijas/Ojén: Rising stars. Mijas attracted mainstream buyers priced out of Marbella; values rose high single digits. Ojén, a mountain village, saw one of the highest jumps (+25.6% to €3,863/m²). Buyers are drawn by scenery and novelty.

Fastest sales across the coast: turnkey properties with modern kitchens, pools, A/C, and tourist licenses were snapped up in weeks. Homes needing renovation or with excessive asking prices stayed on market.

10. 2025 Narrative – The Big Picture
    By year-end, all signals pointed to a strong but balanced market. Prices finished substantially higher, driven by persistent demand and scant supply. Authorities ushered in unprecedented data transparency and began curbing uncontrolled rentals, while ECB policy easing calmed mortgages. Foreign buyers remain the linchpin of demand; domestic buyers are cautiously returning with improving confidence. Despite record prices, multiple indicators suggest this is not an overheated bubble. Local analysts emphasize that fundamentals remain sound: limited land, mortgage checks, and healthy employment all argue against a crash. In short, 2025’s story was “steady growth on solid ground”: climbing prices, government pushing transparency, stable financing costs, and continued international interest, but no signs of a speculative frenzy. Sellers held power on pricing, yet transactions kept flowing.
11. What to Expect in Early 2026
    Looking ahead to Q1 2026, moderate price growth (low single digits) is anticipated. The most likely scenario is continued foreign buying coupled with gradually rising Spanish domestic demand. Mortgage rates may drift slightly lower if Euribor falls further, sustaining buyer activity. The new Tourist Housing Observatory will begin producing reports, which may prompt local policy changes (e.g., rental license zones or limits). Málaga Airport expansions and road/rail projects will slowly enhance connectivity and support market appeal. Certain areas are poised for extra attention: hotspots like Casares and east Marbella (Cabopino/Elviria) are predicted to gain more prominence. Overall, the early 2026 market is expected to remain robust but more tempered.
12. What Buyers Should Do Next
    Buyers entering the market now should move strategically: secure financing in advance, make strong offers, use available data, adapt to rental rules, focus on value-add features, work with local experts, and monitor tax changes.
13. What Sellers Should Do Next
    Sellers should price competitively, prepare for speed, understand tax exposure, highlight foreign-friendly features, and be mindful of local laws. Realistic, data-backed pricing and move-in readiness are key.

Sources:
Data for this report come from Spanish national stats and real estate analytics. Key insights were drawn from industry reports and news (e.g., Realista, Idealista, Sur in English, property portals, and official releases).